基于决策树算法的焦炭CSR和CRI性能预测模型
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

1.武汉科技大学 a.钢铁冶金及资源利用省部共建教育部重点实验室 ;b.省部共建耐火材料与冶金国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430081 ;2.宝钢股份中央研究院 武钢有限技术中心,湖北 武汉 430080

作者简介:

刘晓航(1998—),男,博士研究生,从事冶金领域机器学习方面的研究。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TF526+.1;TP181

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(U22A20173);湖北省重点研发计划资助项目(2022BAA021&2022BAD043)


Coke CSR and CRI performance prediction model based on decision tree algorithm
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Wuhan University of Science and Technology a.Key Laboratory for Ferrous Metallurgy and Resources Utilizationof Ministry of Education ;b.The State Key Laboratory of Refractories and Metallurgy,Wuhan 430081 ,Hubei,China ;2.Technical Center of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co.,Ltd.,Academia Sinica,Baosteel,Wuhan 430080 ,Hubei,China

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    焦炭的 CSR(焦炭反应后强度)和 CRI(焦炭反应性指数)性能指标对提高高炉冶炼效率、降低生产成本和促进绿色生产等起到至关重要的作用。 传统依赖人工经验调控存在响应慢、误差大等问题,难以实现对 CSR 和 CRI 的精准实时预测。 本文基于焦炭的灰分、挥发分、硫分和固定碳等基础属性,采用大数据拟合与机器学习技术,构建预测 CSR 和 CRI 的决策树算法;通过网格搜索结合交叉验证来优化超参数,筛选出最优的决策树,并利用特征相关热图、特征相关性及 SHAP 值解释模型的预测机制。 结果表明:当树深度为19、随机种子数为44 时,CSR 模型的预测效果最佳,精度达 98. 543% ;当树深度为 18、随机种子数为 75 时,CSR 模型的预测效果最佳,精度达 96. 825% ;现场测试结果显示,封装后在线实时预测软件的单次预测时间仅为 0. 1 ~ 0. 3 s,软件具备良好的实时性与稳定性。 本文开发的预测系统能有效支持高炉生产中焦炭的质量决策,显著提升预测效率与准确性,推动炼铁过程向智能化、绿色化和高效化发展。

    Abstract:

    The CSR and CRI performance index of coke play a crucial role in improving blast furnace smelting efficiency, reducing production costs and promoting green production. Traditional reliance on manual experience regulation has problems such as slow response and large errors,making it difficult to achieve accurate real-time prediction for CSR and CRI. Based on the basic properties of coke,such as ash,volatile content,sulfur content and fixed carbon,big data fitting and machine learning technology are used to construct a decision tree algorithm for predicting CSR and CRI. Grid search combined with cross-validation is used to optimize hyperparameters, the optimal decision tree is screened, and the prediction mechanism of the model is explained by using feature correlation heat map, feature correlation and SHAP value. The results show that when the tree depth is 19 and the number of random seeds is 44,the prediction effect of the CSR model is the best,with an accuracy of 98. 543%. When the tree depth is 18 and the number of random seeds is 75,the prediction effect of the CSR model is the best,with an accuracy of 96. 825% . The field test results show that the single prediction time of the online real-time prediction software after packaging is only 0. 1 ~ 0. 3 s,and the software has good real-time performance and stability. The prediction system developed in this paper can effectively support the quality decision of coke in blast furnace production,significantly improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy,and promote the development of the ironmaking process to be intelligent,green and efficient.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

刘晓航,史先菊,许德明,贺铸,李光强,王强.基于决策树算法的焦炭CSR和CRI性能预测模型[J].烧结球团,2025,50(4):151-160

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-25
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-08
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-06
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码