Aiming at such problems as time lag, complicated process and high time consumption of traditional detection methods for low-temperature reduction disintegration index of sinter, the performance index of sinter of 400 m² sintering machine of a steel plant is taken as the research object, the 60 training sets are selected for factor analysis, and a prediction model of low-temperature reduction disintegration index of sinter is established with Al₂O₃, SiO₂, MgO, TiO₂, FeO mass fractions, R, w (MgO) /w (Al₂O₃) and w (CaO) /w (TFe) as independent variables and low-temperature reduction disintegration index as dependent variables. The results show that the main factors affecting the low-temperature reduction disintegration index of sinter are w (Al₂O₃), w (SiO₂), w (FeO), R and w (MgO) /w (Al₂O₃). The optimized prediction model is Y_RDI = 1.137w (FeO) + 5.56w (SiO₂) + 26.44R - 20.19w (MgO) /w (Al₂O₃) - 6.07w (Al₂O₃). The R² of the model is 99.90%, and the model has high accuracy, which can quickly predict the low-temperature reduction disintegration index of sinter, and improve the quality of sinter in production. The prediction model can provide theoretical guidance and technical support for on-site sintering production.